Broker Check

Market Commentary

The problem today more than any time period in our history is not the accessibility of information... it is rather sifting through that information and knowing what is accurate, timely, and relevant for YOU!.  In this weekly blog we break down the headlines surrounding the markets, economy and government policies that affect the financial industry and give history and context to them.  Let us know topics you are interested in learning more about!

Friday, November 19, 2021

Inflation is back and worse than it's been in decades. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in October and are up 6.2% in the last twelve months. Two more months of moderate increases, and the CPI will be 6.5% in 2021, the highest inflation since...

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Despite what listening to the mainstream media might make you think, the voting public doesn't change much from year to year or election to election. As a result, when leaders try to take policy too far in one direction, without enough...

Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve this week and we expect that it will finally announce an overdue tapering of quantitative easing. In addition, we expect Chairman Jerome Powell to make it clear in the press conference...

Friday, October 29, 2021

Any of you that took High School or College economics are familiar with Keynesian Economics. Keynesian economics is a macroeconomic theory of total spending in the economy and its effects on output, employment, and inflation. Keynesian...

Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Politics today is in large part about p itting one group against another and convincing one side they've been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to...

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Wednesday, October 13, 2021

I try not to get political in these commentaries, but when I hear something that deals with financial matters and is an outright lie, I cannot help myself. I keep hearing Nancy Pelosi and others say if we do not vote to raise the debt...

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Last March, when the government was considering whether to lock down the economy, I argued that the longer we stayed locked down the more permanent the damage we would do to the underlying economy. It is now clear that the cost of the...

Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Bond yields have been on a mini-surge this week. The current yield on the 10-year Treasury suggests it can rise even more in the short-term, making cyclical stocks look like good bets. The 10-year yield rose to 1.46% on Friday from a...

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

Some analysts and investors breathed a big sigh of relief on inflation when it was reported last week that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August versus a consensus expected 0.4%. But we think any sense of relief is premature....

Thursday, September 16, 2021

If you've read my two most recent commentaries, you know I raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be? The first thing to recognize is that when we say we're bullish on stocks...

Thursday, September 9, 2021

In early 2020, when COVID hit, the unemployment rate in the United States was 3.5%, wages for low-income earners were rising faster than wages for high-income earners, living standards were rising...the economy was on a roll.Then,...

Friday, August 20, 2021

Similar to the topics we wrote last week, it's nearly impossible to analyze the economy these days without focusing heavily on what the government is doing. Between the Federal Reserve, fiscal policy, and COVID-related restrictions,...

Thursday, August 12, 2021

In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn't have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to navigate changes in government policy. In that world, government (in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation) would be small and...

Friday, August 6, 2021

Last week, the government reported real GDP in the US grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter and was up 6.4% at an annual rate in the first half of 2021. Real GDP is now 0.8% larger than it was at its peak just prior to COVID...

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Last week I shared why I think the stock market is under-valued despite the downturn we saw today. Today, I am going to share the news on the 2nd quarter. This information will reinforce my opinion that the economy is strong and there...

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

I don’t think it is a secret that many believe the markets are overvalued and due for a correction or even a bear market. So, when the S&P 500 was down 1.6% last Thursday, many thought it had arrived. Then, the S&P 500 rebounded...

Tuesday, July 6, 2021

Many analysts have been thinking and writing about the "twin deficits" and whether the record-breaking size of those two deficits, combined, means the US dollar is about to plummet versus other currencies. Before we get into the weeds,...

Wednesday, June 30, 2021

The old hockey adage goes, “Don’t skate to where the puck is, skate to where you think it’s going to be.” That same phrase could apply to investors once earnings season gets going in July. It’s not so much...

Monday, June 28, 2021

Sometimes it is difficult to get any real information that can be trusted. One question many of you should be having is whether the labor market is tight or not? Well, that depends on your perspective. From a national perspective, it...

Wednesday, June 16, 2021

To drive home his commitment to easy monetary policy and low-interest rates in mid-2020, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell declared the Fed was not even “thinking about thinking about raising rates.” The Fed meets...

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

We keep hearing people make comparisons between this recovery and those of the past as if it's apples-to-apples. For example, comparing job growth today to job growth after the 2008-2009 Panic. All in an effort to make the case that...

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

It's not a surprise. Inflation is running hot. But, is it transitory and temporary, or is it real and here for the longer term? How hot will the Federal Reserve let it run, and for how long? When do transitory and cyclical become...

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

The US economy is recovering rapidly from the COVID-19 disaster. The rollout of vaccines, the lifting of restrictions, loose monetary policy, and a massive increase in government spending are all playing their parts. The problem is...

Tuesday, May 11, 2021

One of the best economic debates that are happening right now isn't between Republicans and Democrats or liberals versus conservatives, it's between policymakers who want to go full steam ahead with as much fiscal and monetary...

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

President Biden and Congress agreed to a roughly $2 trillion stimulus back in March and are now contemplating two new additional multi-trillion-dollar pieces of legislation, on both infrastructure and social spending, as well as some...

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Mix extremely loose monetary policy, a federal government cutting checks like it's going out of style, and extensive roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines, and what do you get? Answer: Some strong economic data. The problem is that this...

Monday, April 19, 2021

The S&P 500 fell almost 50% between mid-February and mid-March 2020, during the initial stages of the pandemic. It bottomed at roughly 2,224 during the nationwide strategy of shutting down for “15 days to slow the spread.”...

Tuesday, April 13, 2021

Last year the inventory for homes in Denver was down 27%. As a result, home sellers had a field day selling their homes or rentals. I know because I was one of them. Housing prices have soared in the past year. The national...

Monday, April 5, 2021

The Biden administration just announced their newest spending bill. What are the results of this bill, exactly? What happens if all this money gets into the system? Could it affect your life? How much is actually for physical...

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

The federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year. With the passage of the recent blowout “stimulus” bill, it’s set to be even higher in 2021. Now we watch and wait for a potential...

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

You’ve got to hand it to the Federal Reserve. With the cleverness of a seasoned head coach – think Jim Boeheim leading Syracuse in the NCAA basketball tournament – they figured out how to accomplish a great deal while...

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Economists would define inflation as "too much money chasing too few goods and services" – but that doesn't mean every period of higher inflation is going to look exactly the same. What is unique about this inflation cycle and...

Tuesday, March 9, 2021

The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 gave the Fed a “dual mandate” – to promote maximum sustainable employment and stable prices. That would mean strong vibrant employment and low inflation. Over the...

Monday, March 1, 2021

Those of us who are concerned about inflation increasing faster than the Federal Reserve anticipates are focusing on the rapid increase in the M2 measure of the money supply. This measure has soared since COVID-19 hit the US, up about...

Wednesday, February 24, 2021

The press is trying to tell you that the economy is in trouble and that COVID will be a problem till Christmas. The facts do not support either theory. Things are looking up for the US economy. Later this week we’ll get an update...

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Ever since the stock market bottomed in 2009 during the financial crisis, people have been coming up with reasons why the bull market was about to end. We heard every reason – Brexit, the end of Quantitative Easing, too much debt...

Thursday, February 18, 2021

Friday, February 12, 2021

I would like to share with you a report that was prepared by First Trust Advisors L. P., and reflects the current opinion of the authors. This report will ease your mind about the virus and how close we are to immunity: While the US...

Tuesday, February 9, 2021

I have some very interesting facts to share with you, particularly since Congress is so quick to spend almost 2 trillion dollars and does not know where they will get that money other than burrow from our future. I apologize for my...

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

For those of you that are intrigued by the Game Stock growth, I wanted to go into more detail. For the majority, my last commentary will suffice, but for those that want to understand the intrigue allow me to explain. Last week, the...

Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Yes, 2021 is starting as crazy as 2020. They don't agree on the Green New Deal or Socialism, but Ted Cruz and AOC both agree that limiting investor access to markets is a mistake. In case you missed it, last week, Robinhood, a new...

Thursday, January 28, 2021

The budget deficit for the fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger. Before...

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

The double-dip recession so many feared didn’t arrive in the fourth quarter of 2020, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will happen in early 2021, either. That is good news for those still looking for a job. It’s...

Wednesday, January 13, 2021

The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia. As a result, President Biden will have slender majorities in the House and Senate. These slender majorities limit many...

Thursday, January 7, 2021

I thought it might be helpful to summarize what happened in the economy and markets in the year of COVID 2020. I remain bullish on the markets and bearing any surprises, I still believe we could see a 15% return on Stocks. We need to...

Wednesday, January 6, 2021

“God does not call the qualified, He qualifies the called.” Sounds like a good message in these stressful times. I just wanted to respond to the Georgia senate race and how that will affect your investments. Now that the...

Monday, January 4, 2021

When it comes to attracting people, jobs, and businesses, some states are just better than others. While the total US population increased 6.5% from 2010 to 2020, it increased 17.1% in Utah, 16.3% in Texas, 16.3% in Idaho, 16.1% in...

Thursday, December 31, 2020

Before and during the French Revolution Charles Dickens wrote a Tale of Two Cities. In it, he said, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch...

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Backroom deals in Washington, DC always die and come back to life, over and over, again. And, even though a “COVID shutdown rescue package” seems like a no brainer, it’s been caught up in politics for months....

Thursday, December 10, 2020

The COVID-19 Recession is the weirdest we've ever had. There is no way anyone could have forecast it. It did not happen because the Fed was too tight. It did not happen because of a trade war. It was self-inflicted, caused by COVID...

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

In December 2019, we made a year-end 2020 forecast of 3,650 for the S&P 500. With the index closing Friday at 3,638, that looks like a very good call. I’d be lying if I didn’t admit to the volatility that we had to go...

Monday, November 23, 2020

Remember the bit by Abbot and Costello, “Who’s on first?” Well, today it is “Who's in charge of fiscal policy?” That's the real issue behind the recent dispute between Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and...

Friday, November 20, 2020

Give Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this...

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

While the election is still not certified, and court battles will drag on, it appears that we can draw two firm conclusions from the 2020 election. First, the pollsters were horribly wrong again. Second, American voters do not want a...

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Following is Charley Reese's final column for the Orlando Sentinel in 2001... He was a journalist for 49 years, but passed away May 2013He was retiring and this was HIS LAST COLUMN. This is about as clear and easy to understand as it...

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

I waited to write this until after the election. Surprise... the election is not over! The good news is no matter who emerges as the president, it is a divided Congress. As a result, the tax increase will not happen. That is a key...

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

To reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due this...

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

You should be well aware that the third-quarter earnings and GDP are stellar. Some were doubting the ability of the economy to bounce back in a V-shaped recovery, but it is indeed happening. It's important to keep in mind that even...

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Please read this and pass it on. As the election approaches, I have tried to convince you that corporate America is strong and will continue to be strong no matter who gets elected. This commentary will help you understand why. COVID...

Monday, October 5, 2020

Despite the miserable debate, the mediocre employment numbers, the final figure for the GDP for the second quarter, and the president getting COVID, the markets were up last week. What is going on? Shouldn’t the markets be down...

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

With the presidential election just over a month away, prospects for another round of fiscal stimulus seem to be dwindling. The recent death of Justice Ginsburg and the rapidly approaching election have shifted the Senate's gaze and...

Monday, September 21, 2020

The second quarter of 2020 was the mother of all economic contractions. Real GDP shrank at a 31.7% annual rate, the largest drop for any quarter since the Great Depression. However, based on the economic reports we've seen so far, it...

Monday, September 21, 2020

Below is an article written by the Capital Group that summarizes 5 facts about how the markets can predict an election. I thought you might find this interesting How much do elections impact the stock market and portfolio returns?...

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

As we near the end of the third quarter, key economic reports will be released that will influence our forecast for third-quarter real Gross Domestic Product, (GDP). It will be a very strong quarter. The expectation is for a 25%...

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Mr. Biden's Tax plan: from taxspeaker.com Former Vice President Biden’s election website is www.joebiden.com . I went through every posting on the site and have not found a formal income tax policy plan, guide or summary, nor...

Wednesday, September 9, 2020

I don’t know what you think of the shutdowns of the economy to “protect” us from the virus. There are opinions both ways and I tend to side with those that have proven that the shutdowns were not necessary, but the...

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

I have been getting questions on the stock market and that it is being propped up by government benefits. With those benefits going down, do we now get cautious and get conservative? At the end of 2019 we made the same exact forecast...

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Before I go into my commentary, I wanted to inform all of you with REITs in your portfolio, that I am currently researching all of them and talking to representatives of the companies. I should have a review to send out by early next...

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

I have said this in past weeks, but I am saying again that it is going to take years to fully recover from the Covid-19 and economic shutdowns. Only when unemployment reaches 4% will we be fully recovered and I don’t expect that...

Friday, August 7, 2020

These days, pretty much everything is hyper-political, including death rates from disease, wearing masks, opening schools, whether some demonstrations are "mostly peaceful" or "violent," and now GDP. Late last week, plenty of headlines...

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

I don’t like bad news, but after giving you this information, I promise I will help you understand why the future still looks bright! The markets like to look forward 3 -6 months rather than backward. Thursday’s initial...

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

All right, it is time to study supply and demand and how it is behaving in our economy as a result of COVID. I think we can all agree that “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” It’s been attributed to many...

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

It's time to think about something other than COVID, statues, the election, and defunding the police. How about higher education? Specifically, student loans and grants. Just like the bipartisan efforts to making housing more...

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated...

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a...

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week...

Friday, June 12, 2020

Key takeaways going forward with the markets: Because this economic decline is policy driven, a solid recovery is likely as lockdowns end. Easy monetary policy, aggressive fiscal policy and zero-bound interest rates should continue to...

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Not a good day for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,800 points today and was on pace for its worst day since the March sell-off as coronavirus cases increased in some states that are reopening up...

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest. Friday's employment report should leave little doubt that the US economy has already hit bottom and is...

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; It is now hard to believe that we will see 4% unemployment rate until 2024....

Monday, June 1, 2020

During this pandemic, we are seeing the seeds of socialism. Do you understand why capitalism, albeit not perfect, is the best economic system ever created and America is the model of how to use it? The reason I can confidently manage...

Friday, May 29, 2020

“The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and...

Thursday, May 28, 2020

The coronavirus kills, everyone knows it. But this isn't the first deadly virus the world has seen, so what happened? Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives...

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

This year’s experiment with government-imposed lockdowns has been a fiasco. We should have been focused on sealing-off nursing homes and limiting mass indoor events, while the vast majority of businesses that were shut down could...

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

How about a lesson in government debt, particularly this year that the amount the government is accumulating is historical? The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased...

Monday, May 18, 2020

Home builders most certainly have short-term challenges. People have been locked in their houses, unemployment has skyrocketed like never before and nobody knows exactly when life will get back to normal. In this environment, a lot of...

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

In December 2018 the S&P 500 was at 2,500. I forecast that the markets would be up 20% by the end of 2019. Then I wrote in May that I thought my forecast was low. I pushed my forecast that stocks would be up between 25% and 30%. The...

Monday, May 11, 2020

Like you, I am ready for this pandemic to end and for us to go back to our lives. While talking to my daughter, I began to understand the fear that permeates most both young and old. It is not just the press focusing on the negative,...

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Before I get into the economic data for the week, I want you to know that the Dow at its high was 29,568. It dropped to 18,263 with the news of the pandemic. That was a 38% drop. Today the market is at 24,000 or down 19%. That is a...

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Some of you may be asking the question, are stocks overvalued with corporations having a difficult time with earnings? Despite the stock market's 34% plunge between February 19 and March 23, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted...

Monday, April 27, 2020

The Labor Department reported another 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, as massive job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic continued to grow. The new report, which covers the week ending April 18,...

Monday, April 27, 2020

We’ve seen some dramatic market action over the last two months in the stock. A nearly 11-year bull market (based on traditional models) turned into a bear market in less than four weeks, the fastest on record. From its high on...

Friday, April 24, 2020

Speaking of scary, four Sundays ago, a man in Colorado named Matt Mooney went to a park near his house to throw a ball with his wife and his 6-year-old daughter. The park was deserted, which meant the Mooney's were essentially standing...

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Beijing’s cover-up of the coronavirus outbreak is the scandal of the century. Its unconscionable malfeasance launched a global plague, hobbled the international response, and crashed the world’s economy. James Carafano has...

Thursday, April 16, 2020

I was so impressed with this article by the president of Hillsdale College that I had to share it with all of you. It is insightful and frankly right on point about our government, the agencies within our government and what we need to...

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

If you missed our live webinar on this topic please see the recording Here Have the experts been wrong about their predictions of the impact of COVID-19 on global health and wealth? From what I have read the answer is a clear yes....

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

What I am about to talk about may offend some, yet it needs to be discussed if our country is to get back on its feet and people get back to work to pay bills and support their families. When the economy opens back up is one of the...

Monday, April 6, 2020

Our economy is facing unprecedented challenges. As I have said before, we have likely entered a recession in March of this year with this major economic decline. Policymakers have acted fast, delivering sizable fiscal and monetary...

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Do you remember Captain Sully whose plane, full with passengers, lost both engines due to a flock of birds hitting them at a low altitude? Under extremely stressful conditions, the pilot did the right thing, safely landing in the...

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Due to fears about the Coronavirus – more specifically, the forceful government measures designed to halt its spread, the US is on the front edge of the sharpest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression. Please...

Monday, March 23, 2020

I want to drive home is that the bounce when this is over is going to be fast and big! We all need to be prepared for that bounce and not panic or sell.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Welcome to the coronavirus shutdown. We all know when you shut down airports, restaurants, bars that the economy is going to have a contraction. January and February were very strong economic months with over 270,000 new jobs each...

Monday, March 16, 2020

Back in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a "bazooka" to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This...

Monday, March 16, 2020

I thought in addition to all the talk about how to invest during this coronavirus and the various comparisons to 1987 etc. that it might be helpful to look back at the market and how fast it typically recovers and what we should expect...

Monday, March 16, 2020

This week I am going to be sending you a few commentaries in order to calm the fears and to put a perspective on all that is happening. If you are fearful, I am not surprised. With all that we hear about coronavirus, we all fear for...

Thursday, March 12, 2020

With the markets moving down past 20%, we are in correction territory. I think some of the economic data that I voiced last week bears repeating. But before that review, I want to feel with each of you as you look at all the gains you...

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

By the time you read this, you will have noticed the market down 7% just today. No one knows with any real certainty how much, or for how long, the Coronavirus will impact the US economy. What we do know is that it will have an impact....

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

By the time you read this, the Fed has already have cut rates by 1/2 %. That is the situation we find ourselves in given the recent correction in equities, which were at a record high only eight trading days ago but were down 12.8%...

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

I felt this week that I should write a second commentary due to the fears surrounding the Coronavirus. This morning the markets are up sharply after two days of almost a 7% downturn in all the market. These drops wiped out all the...

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

As I write this commentary the markets are down 5% for Monday and Tuesday. The amount of the downturn for the DOW is 1500. That is enough to give you indigestion, but not enough to panic. Understand that downturns that are caused by...

Friday, February 21, 2020

Thirty years ago, many in the US were in fear that a rising power in Asia was on the verge of eclipsing the US. Now it’s China, back then it was Japan. Back in the late 1980s Japan had become the second-largest economy in the...

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, not only beating the consensus forecast, but also forecasts from every single economics group. Since January 2019 (12 months ago), both payrolls and civilian employment – an...

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Fears about the coronavirus knocked down equities last week, while a flight to safety brought the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 1.51% at the Friday close versus 1.69% the week prior and 1.92% at the end of 2019. The consensus...

Thursday, January 30, 2020

The Federal Reserve is set to make its first policy statement of the year on Wednesday, so this is as good a time as any to reiterate our view that the Fed is likely to keep short term interest rates steady through 2020 and, while...

Friday, January 24, 2020

Back in mid-November, the highly respected GDP forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (also known as “GDP Now”), estimated that real GDP would only grow at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, which,...

Thursday, January 16, 2020

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Monday, January 13, 2020

At the beginning of last year, the economic pundits were talking about a crash in the market and a deep recession. Despite their best efforts, the longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive...

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, I forecasted a return of 20% to 25% this year. At the time, this appeared very aggressive. Then I added 5% to my numbers at mid-year, lifting...

Thursday, December 26, 2019

I published last year as an expression of the Christian message on Christmas from First Trust Economic department: The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke...

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

A year ago, I projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the downturn in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the...

Monday, December 9, 2019

During the next couple of days, you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on...

Monday, December 2, 2019

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don’t see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we...

Thursday, November 21, 2019

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

How about a lesson that demonstrates why we need less government and fewer taxes rather than more as some claim? One of my favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer’s 1990 book, “Unlimited Wealth...

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest...

Monday, October 28, 2019

The government doesn’t release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it’ll come in at right around a 1.8%...

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Trade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it’s been hard to keep...

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday’s employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most...

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They’re certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through...

Monday, September 23, 2019

“We are all Keynesians now,” is what is now being espoused as the new economics. While we won’t explain the entire theory of economics proposed by John Maynard Keynes, it was a “demand-side” belief system....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Labor Day is probably the best time to take stock of the American worker and, for them, it’s rarely been better. The unemployment rate is near the lowest level since the 1960s, job growth remains robust, and wage growth is in a...

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The threat of a recession is on the minds of many investors, predominantly due to irresponsible news articles that are inciting panic for investors who fear that they could lose money in stock or mutual fund investments. Shame on the...

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

More than five years ago the European Central Bank adopted negative interest rates as a policy tool to address economic weakness in the Eurozone. Starting at -0.1%, eventually, the target short-term rate fell to -0.4%. In Europe, as...

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

I am not sure I understand why the Fed is acting the way they are. I am confused with their rhetoric. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was "data...

Thursday, August 1, 2019

This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our...

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our...

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Until recently, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell sounded a consistent theme: the Fed is data-dependent and will stay that way, unswayed by noise or pressure from politicians. When the FOMC released its rate decision last month, it got as...

Thursday, June 13, 2019

At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts. The US economy doesn't need...