Broker Check

Market Commentary

The problem today more than any time period in our history is not the accessibility of information... it is rather sifting through that information and knowing what is accurate, timely, and relevant for YOU!.  In this weekly blog we break down the headlines surrounding the markets, economy and government policies that affect the financial industry and give history and context to them.  Let us know topics you are interested in learning more about!

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

A resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated...

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

Turning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions. For example, US retail sales plunged a...

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week...

Friday, June 12, 2020

Key takeaways going forward with the markets: Because this economic decline is policy driven, a solid recovery is likely as lockdowns end. Easy monetary policy, aggressive fiscal policy and zero-bound interest rates should continue to...

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Not a good day for the stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,800 points today and was on pace for its worst day since the March sell-off as coronavirus cases increased in some states that are reopening up...

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Tuesday, June 9, 2020

The recession that started in March is the sharpest downturn since the Great Depression. As it turns out, it was also the shortest. Friday's employment report should leave little doubt that the US economy has already hit bottom and is...

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

A full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; It is now hard to believe that we will see 4% unemployment rate until 2024....

Monday, June 1, 2020

During this pandemic, we are seeing the seeds of socialism. Do you understand why capitalism, albeit not perfect, is the best economic system ever created and America is the model of how to use it? The reason I can confidently manage...

Friday, May 29, 2020

“The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Tens of thousands of Americans have died, and Americans are now desperate for sensible policymakers who have the courage to ignore the panic and...

Thursday, May 28, 2020

The coronavirus kills, everyone knows it. But this isn't the first deadly virus the world has seen, so what happened? Why did we react the way we did? One answer is that this is the first social media pandemic. News and narratives...

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

This year’s experiment with government-imposed lockdowns has been a fiasco. We should have been focused on sealing-off nursing homes and limiting mass indoor events, while the vast majority of businesses that were shut down could...

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

How about a lesson in government debt, particularly this year that the amount the government is accumulating is historical? The largest federal budget deficit since World War II came back in 2009, as slower growth and increased...

Monday, May 18, 2020

Home builders most certainly have short-term challenges. People have been locked in their houses, unemployment has skyrocketed like never before and nobody knows exactly when life will get back to normal. In this environment, a lot of...

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

In December 2018 the S&P 500 was at 2,500. I forecast that the markets would be up 20% by the end of 2019. Then I wrote in May that I thought my forecast was low. I pushed my forecast that stocks would be up between 25% and 30%. The...

Monday, May 11, 2020

Like you, I am ready for this pandemic to end and for us to go back to our lives. While talking to my daughter, I began to understand the fear that permeates most both young and old. It is not just the press focusing on the negative,...

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Before I get into the economic data for the week, I want you to know that the Dow at its high was 29,568. It dropped to 18,263 with the news of the pandemic. That was a 38% drop. Today the market is at 24,000 or down 19%. That is a...

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Some of you may be asking the question, are stocks overvalued with corporations having a difficult time with earnings? Despite the stock market's 34% plunge between February 19 and March 23, the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted...

Monday, April 27, 2020

The Labor Department reported another 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment claims last week, as massive job losses caused by the coronavirus pandemic continued to grow. The new report, which covers the week ending April 18,...

Monday, April 27, 2020

We’ve seen some dramatic market action over the last two months in the stock. A nearly 11-year bull market (based on traditional models) turned into a bear market in less than four weeks, the fastest on record. From its high on...

Friday, April 24, 2020

Speaking of scary, four Sundays ago, a man in Colorado named Matt Mooney went to a park near his house to throw a ball with his wife and his 6-year-old daughter. The park was deserted, which meant the Mooney's were essentially standing...

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Beijing’s cover-up of the coronavirus outbreak is the scandal of the century. Its unconscionable malfeasance launched a global plague, hobbled the international response, and crashed the world’s economy. James Carafano has...

Thursday, April 16, 2020

I was so impressed with this article by the president of Hillsdale College that I had to share it with all of you. It is insightful and frankly right on point about our government, the agencies within our government and what we need to...

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

If you missed our live webinar on this topic please see the recording Here Have the experts been wrong about their predictions of the impact of COVID-19 on global health and wealth? From what I have read the answer is a clear yes....

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

What I am about to talk about may offend some, yet it needs to be discussed if our country is to get back on its feet and people get back to work to pay bills and support their families. When the economy opens back up is one of the...

Monday, April 6, 2020

Our economy is facing unprecedented challenges. As I have said before, we have likely entered a recession in March of this year with this major economic decline. Policymakers have acted fast, delivering sizable fiscal and monetary...

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Do you remember Captain Sully whose plane, full with passengers, lost both engines due to a flock of birds hitting them at a low altitude? Under extremely stressful conditions, the pilot did the right thing, safely landing in the...

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Due to fears about the Coronavirus – more specifically, the forceful government measures designed to halt its spread, the US is on the front edge of the sharpest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression. Please...

Monday, March 23, 2020

I want to drive home is that the bounce when this is over is going to be fast and big! We all need to be prepared for that bounce and not panic or sell.

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Welcome to the coronavirus shutdown. We all know when you shut down airports, restaurants, bars that the economy is going to have a contraction. January and February were very strong economic months with over 270,000 new jobs each...

Monday, March 16, 2020

Back in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a "bazooka" to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This...

Monday, March 16, 2020

I thought in addition to all the talk about how to invest during this coronavirus and the various comparisons to 1987 etc. that it might be helpful to look back at the market and how fast it typically recovers and what we should expect...

Monday, March 16, 2020

This week I am going to be sending you a few commentaries in order to calm the fears and to put a perspective on all that is happening. If you are fearful, I am not surprised. With all that we hear about coronavirus, we all fear for...

Thursday, March 12, 2020

With the markets moving down past 20%, we are in correction territory. I think some of the economic data that I voiced last week bears repeating. But before that review, I want to feel with each of you as you look at all the gains you...

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

By the time you read this, you will have noticed the market down 7% just today. No one knows with any real certainty how much, or for how long, the Coronavirus will impact the US economy. What we do know is that it will have an impact....

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

By the time you read this, the Fed has already have cut rates by 1/2 %. That is the situation we find ourselves in given the recent correction in equities, which were at a record high only eight trading days ago but were down 12.8%...

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

I felt this week that I should write a second commentary due to the fears surrounding the Coronavirus. This morning the markets are up sharply after two days of almost a 7% downturn in all the market. These drops wiped out all the...

Tuesday, February 25, 2020

As I write this commentary the markets are down 5% for Monday and Tuesday. The amount of the downturn for the DOW is 1500. That is enough to give you indigestion, but not enough to panic. Understand that downturns that are caused by...

Friday, February 21, 2020

Thirty years ago, many in the US were in fear that a rising power in Asia was on the verge of eclipsing the US. Now it’s China, back then it was Japan. Back in the late 1980s Japan had become the second-largest economy in the...

Tuesday, February 11, 2020

In January, US payrolls expanded by 225,000, not only beating the consensus forecast, but also forecasts from every single economics group. Since January 2019 (12 months ago), both payrolls and civilian employment – an...

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Fears about the coronavirus knocked down equities last week, while a flight to safety brought the yield on the 10-year Treasury down to 1.51% at the Friday close versus 1.69% the week prior and 1.92% at the end of 2019. The consensus...

Thursday, January 30, 2020

The Federal Reserve is set to make its first policy statement of the year on Wednesday, so this is as good a time as any to reiterate our view that the Fed is likely to keep short term interest rates steady through 2020 and, while...

Friday, January 24, 2020

Back in mid-November, the highly respected GDP forecasting model from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (also known as “GDP Now”), estimated that real GDP would only grow at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter, which,...

Thursday, January 16, 2020

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Monday, January 13, 2020

At the beginning of last year, the economic pundits were talking about a crash in the market and a deep recession. Despite their best efforts, the longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive...

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

What a year! As of the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was up 29.2% in 2019. At the end of 2018, I forecasted a return of 20% to 25% this year. At the time, this appeared very aggressive. Then I added 5% to my numbers at mid-year, lifting...

Thursday, December 26, 2019

I published last year as an expression of the Christian message on Christmas from First Trust Economic department: The Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke...

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

A year ago, I projected the S&P 500 would hit 3100 at the end of 2019. In spite of the downturn in equities in the fourth quarter of last year, we didn’t see a recession coming and our model for estimating fair value for the...

Monday, December 9, 2019

During the next couple of days, you’re going to see lots of stories about the strength of consumer spending. Early reports say Black Friday on-line sales hit a record high, up 14% from a year ago, following a 17% increase on...

Monday, December 2, 2019

What an incredible time to be alive! We stand just five weeks from the end of a decade that saw prosperity spread far and wide. Some don’t see it that way, as pouting pundits and rancorous politics skew our visions. But, if we...

Thursday, November 21, 2019

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Tuesday, November 12, 2019

How about a lesson that demonstrates why we need less government and fewer taxes rather than more as some claim? One of my favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer’s 1990 book, “Unlimited Wealth...

Tuesday, October 29, 2019

At the close of business on Friday, the futures market in federal funds was putting the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday at 90%, which would place the federal funds rate in a range between 1.50 and 1.75%, the lowest...

Monday, October 28, 2019

The government doesn’t release its initial estimate on third quarter real GDP for another nine days, but at this point we have enough facts and figures to make an educated guess that it’ll come in at right around a 1.8%...

Thursday, October 17, 2019

Trade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it’s been hard to keep...

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

In spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday’s employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most...

Thursday, September 26, 2019

Never underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They’re certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through...

Monday, September 23, 2019

“We are all Keynesians now,” is what is now being espoused as the new economics. While we won’t explain the entire theory of economics proposed by John Maynard Keynes, it was a “demand-side” belief system....

Thursday, September 12, 2019

"This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources however no warranty can be made as to its accuracy or completeness....

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Labor Day is probably the best time to take stock of the American worker and, for them, it’s rarely been better. The unemployment rate is near the lowest level since the 1960s, job growth remains robust, and wage growth is in a...

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

The threat of a recession is on the minds of many investors, predominantly due to irresponsible news articles that are inciting panic for investors who fear that they could lose money in stock or mutual fund investments. Shame on the...

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

More than five years ago the European Central Bank adopted negative interest rates as a policy tool to address economic weakness in the Eurozone. Starting at -0.1%, eventually, the target short-term rate fell to -0.4%. In Europe, as...

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

I am not sure I understand why the Fed is acting the way they are. I am confused with their rhetoric. For the past several years, under the leadership of both Jerome Powell and, before that, Janet Yellen, the Fed claimed it was "data...

Thursday, August 1, 2019

This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our...

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

This Friday, the government will release its initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter, and the headline is likely to look soft. At present, we're projecting an initial report of growth at a 1.8% annual rate. If our...

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Until recently, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell sounded a consistent theme: the Fed is data-dependent and will stay that way, unswayed by noise or pressure from politicians. When the FOMC released its rate decision last month, it got as...

Thursday, June 13, 2019

At the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts. The US economy doesn't need...